POQ Special Issues
Understanding the 2008 Presidential Election - 2009 Special Issue
In many respects, the outcome of the 2008 presidential election should have been quite easy to predict. Yet, it was unclear if the standard predictions would hold because the 2008 campaign was extraordinary in so many ways: an African American candidate, an unprecedented economic collapse, the pitting of a war hero against a political novice in an open-seat contest. Confidence in election predictions was further shaken by public skepticism about the accuracy of poll numbers.
The strength of polls is not just in their ability to produce accurate numbers and predictions; it is in their ability to help us understand why the winning candidate prevailed. Of course, our ability to answer the substantive questions about the election depends on having methodologically sound polling data.
The latest special issue of POQ, edited by D. Sunshine Hillygus, deals with various aspects of public opinion in the 2008 presidential election, helping to move the discussion beyond the clamor for an accuracy "gold star" and toward a better understanding of the dynamics of this historic contest and the quality of polling in the campaign.
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Table of Contents
D. Sunshine Hillygus
Understanding the 2008 Presidential Election: Introduction
Michael Mokrzycki, Scott Keeter, and Courtney Kennedy
Cell-Phone-Only Voters in the 2008 Exit Poll and Implications for Future Noncoverage Bias
Michael W. Traugott and Christopher Wlezien
The Dynamics of Poll Performance During the 2008 Presidential Nomination Contest
David Rothschild
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases
Vincent L. Hutchings
Change or More of The Same?: Evaluating Racial Attitudes in the Obama Era
Josh Pasek, Alexander Tahk, Yphtach Lelkes, Jon A. Krosnick, B. Keith Payne, Omair Akhtar, and Trevor Tompson
Determinants of Turnout and Candidate Choice in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election: Illuminating the Impact of Racial Prejudice and Other Considerations
Tasha S. Philpot, Daron R. Shaw, and Ernest B. McGowen
Winning the Race: Black Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election
Seth E. Masket
Did Obama’s Ground Game Matter?: The Influence of Local Field Offices During the 2008 Presidential Election
Web Survey Methods - 2008 Special Issue
This special issue of POQ, edited by Mick P. Couper and Peter V. Miller, explores some of the many ways that the Internet can be used--whether alone or in combination with other methods--to conduct surveys.
Have Web surveys lived up the hope and expectations of some, or the fears of others? Some claimed that Web surveys would replace other modes of data collection (especially telephone surveys); others saw Web surveys contributing to the disintegration or dilution--if not total demise--of the survey enterprise. Neither of these extremes has come to pass. Web surveys, like other methods of survey data collection, have strengths and weaknesses. Much of the research over the past several years has focused on identifying these strengths and weaknesses and finding ways to overcome the former and exploit the latter. The papers in this special issue continue the trend.
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Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the U.S. - 2007 Special Issue
This special issue of POQ, edited by Paul J. Lavrakas, looks into the growing number of Americans who only use cell phones and the effect of this trend on surveying. Articles included in this free-access issue address topics such as the possible future inaccuracy of surveys using only landlines, the effect of the rising percentage of cell-only households on surveys, and the decline in younger respondents in landline-only surveys.
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Nonresponse Bias in Household Surveys - 2006 Special Issue
This special issue of POQ, edited by Eleanor Singer, focuses on issues that are currently occupying center stage among survey researchers. As response rates to surveys continue to decline, questions about the impact of such a decline on survey estimates assume increasing importance. The issue’s lead article takes a close look at the relationship between nonresponse rates and nonresponse bias, concluding that the rate of nonresponse alone is not a good predictor of nonresponse bias. Instead, the article suggests various ways in which nonresponse can lead to biased survey estimates and offers practical suggestions for coping with them.
Nonresponse has preoccupied survey researchers for at least 15 years. This issue of POQ, which presents the most up-to-date theory and research relevant to the topic, is essential for survey practitioners and survey methodologists.
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